Know what’s moving markets—and what could break the thesis.
Track dominant macro forces through structured evidence, contradictory signals, cross-asset implications and explicit invalidation criteria.
Resilient growth.
Sticky inflation.
What matters now
Inflation persistence
The global disinflation process has stalled as energy and food shocks meet still-firm services inflation. The thesis is persistence—not an uninterrupted rise—and it remains sensitive to energy normalization and demand.
Long-end fiscal pressure
Large borrowing needs and elevated inflation uncertainty are increasing the compensation investors require to hold long-duration government debt—even as the policy rate sits below long yields.
AI capex cycle
AI infrastructure spending has become a macro investment cycle supporting growth, power demand and technology trade. The key uncertainty is whether realized cash flows and productivity justify the cost of capital.
Policy divergence
Common shocks are producing different central-bank responses because inflation persistence, spare capacity and currency pass-through vary by economy.
This week in the evidence
Not a news digest. Every change is connected to an active thesis and its next test.
Read the full brief →Long-end pressure
10-year yields and model-based term premium remain elevated.
Inflation persistence
Annual CPI stayed high while July’s monthly reading was flat.
July PCE
26 August · consumption strength and sequential core prices.
The signals behind the themes
Stress the narrative
Select changes in growth, inflation, policy and the dollar. See which themes strengthen, which weaken, and where forces conflict.